Viewpoint: The Splintered Society

Winston Fletcher
Chairman of the Royal Institution

The consumers' universe is growing more and more fragmented with every day that passes – and I fear the market research business is not keeping ahead of the curve. Like everyone else in marketing and the media, market researchers are bedazzled by the fragmentation of television channels. Heaven knows why. Television fragmentation is but one-tenth of magazine fragmentation, and the fact that you can no longer reach half the population with a single peak-time spot on Coronation Street is of almost no significance whatsoever. You could never, ever reach half the population with a single press or magazine ad, or poster site, but that has never detracted from their marketing effectiveness. Arguably, it has enhanced it.

In any event, television fragmentation is but a pimple on the huge face of fragmentation. The reality is that fragmentation is ubiquitous. Take shopping. Our supermarkets are replete with fruits and vegetables, cheeses and meats, wines, beers and spirits from all over the globe, many of which we had not even heard of five years ago. Each fragments its market. Each forces consumers to make more choices.

The same is true of toiletries and perfumes, of coffees and herbs, of breads and jams. But, outside the supermarkets, the fragmentation and the choices are still greater. Far greater. Think of the prodigious abundance of goods and services from which you constantly have to choose. The variety of clothes on offer in fashion shops is now virtually infinite. No wonder so many people hate clothes shopping: for them, therapy it isn't. A new car? There are more than 2000 makes and models now on offer in the UK, in more colours, engine sizes and trims than you can shake a gear stick at. A holiday? Think of all those travel ads and brochures. The diversity of holidays is again virtually infinite. You want to save rather than spend? There are literally hundreds of thousands of savings, insurance and investment options open to you. And I haven't even started on books (150,000 published every year), gizmos, games and gardening stuff, nor on cosmetics, cameras, cleaners and consumer durables ... not to mention, again, the media.

Nor is it only when shopping that we are beset with fragmentation. Fragmentation increasingly chases us in the most important aspects of our lives. At schools and universities the number of educational options has multiplied enormously. Which subjects should our children study? Who knows? Which career would be best? Not so long ago the vast majority of people (men) followed in their father's footsteps and stayed put thereafter. Today the career market, like every other, is splintering. So is our choice of homes. So are health treatments. So even, goodness knows, are sexual proclivities and tastes.

What does all this mean for market research? Fundamentally fragmentation, in any and every sphere of life, means that fewer and fewer people are purchasing or doing any one thing, be it choosing a brand or a lifestyle. Above all, fragmentation means rejection. Estimates vary a bit, but a large supermarket will carry about 30,000 lines, from which the average shopper will select about 30 in half an hour. This means the shopper will reject around 29,970 each trip. But that minuscule 30 selected will produce enough turnover and profit for each of them to thrive. This means that all brands and products are minority brands and products – and that in turn means the one small voice in a focus group may represent a sizeable profit potential.

But market research is still geared to the language of mass markets and majorities. Well, majorities matter in politics (but less and less so) – and that's about it. Homogeneity is fast disappearing, heterogeneity is the name of the game. We live in a splintered society. Researchers and clients alike should stop discounting the small percentages in any table of figures. Minorities are what matter. And not just on television

International Journal of Market Research 48(4), 2006

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