Using Statistics to Forecast Trends and Service Demand

How can you forecast demand for your services better?

You or your client may have been offering a service, but are finding it difficult to know when demand is at its quietest and busiest. When it is quiet, you do not want staff waiting around to provide services to users, but when it is busy, you need to know that you have sufficient staff to meet demand without extending waiting times. You or your client may be running services to process welfare benefit claims, or dealing with telephone queries from residents about their housing. How can you forecast demand for your services better? Can statistical methods help you?

Applying standard statistical techniques, the course helps give delegates increased confidence as to:

• When to expect peaks of demand;
• When to provide most resources and when usage is likely to be quiet and resourcing costs can be saved;
• How best to optimise grades of service and customer experiences;
• What the seasonal, time-of-day and day of the week effects are on demand levels;
• If demand is increasing or decreasing, even allowing for the above effects;
• And how to go about assessing levels of demand for an entirely new service.

Who would benefit

Planners and Analysts from a range of private and local/central government organisations that want to understand the drivers of footfall or are looking to set up “contact/call centre” services are likely to benefit from this training. However, this course is also likely to be relevant for researchers who work within or are commissioned by these organisations to assess and forecast demand for these services.

Objectives

• To understand and appreciate the reasons underlying the need for accurate forecasting and planning and the link between them.
• What to consider when setting up a new service.
• To understand the theoretical principles behind forecast modelling – i.e. the background issues of correlation and regression.
• To appreciate the factors that may increase or decrease workload volumes.
• To understand when forecasting can add value.
• To understand how to carry out long-term capacity planning.

Learning outcomes

• To construct a time series model that breaks the forecast into different factors
• To develop a predictive regression model that allows for the identification of influential factors that drive demand
• To forecast using long-term (seasonal), short-term (e.g. recent activity) and interventional factors
• To know whether the data you have will enable a reliable demand model to be built
• To test models created and assess the level or “envelope” of accuracy likely to be achieved
• How to understand and build in the effects of recent changes in demand level
• To report forecast findings and to track forecasting/planning performance
• How to relate volume forecasts to manpower planning
• How to check the robustness of your model and look out for its pitfalls and to relate these to practical examples
• To understand the (time and data) limitations of forecasting
• To recognise the common pitfalls of modeling.

Level
Advanced

Price
MRS Members £325 + VAT
Non Members £475 + VAT
Company Partner (non-ticket price) £325.00 + VAT