In uncertain times, predictions tend to be wrong, the antidote is Scenario Thinking

This course is now delivered online as a series of live sessions which fully meet the learning objectives of face-to-face training.

Scenario Thinking takes the complexities of the future and strips them down to the core issues that map out possible futures. These possible futures are the scenarios; mutually exclusive stories that describe what might happen next. Scenarios allow an uncertain future to be envisioned and planned for.

Scenario Thinking is an alternative to, and a complement for, predictions. There is never a shortage of people making predictions, but what we know from research conducted by people like Philip Tetlock is that most predictions are wrong, and most experts are as likely to be accurate as a chimpanzee with a dart. The aim of scenario thinking is to ensure that you are never wrong, as opposed to focusing on trying to be absolutely right.

Learning Outcomes

  • Understand the role of scenarios in planning for uncertain futures
  • Identify the steps you need to take to create a useful set of scenarios
  • Analyse the role of insights creating and applying Scenario Thinking
  • Evaluate the benefits accruing from Scenario Thinking

Who Will Benefit?

Those involved in making or supporting strategic decisions. Decision makers from brand managers through to CFOs and CEOs will profit from being able to use Scenario Planning more effectively. Researchers and insight consultants inputting to strategic decisions will benefit from a better understanding of their role in the Scenario Planning process.

Ray is the author of The Handbook of Mobile Market Research, The Handbook of Online
and Social Media Research and the #IPASOCIALWORKS Guide to Measuring Not
Counting, the founder of, editor of the ESOMAR book Answers to
Contemporary Market Research Questions, a content author for the University of
Georgia’s Principles of Market Research course and is the Managing Director of
The Future Place, a UK-based consultancy, specialising in training.Ray
has spent the last 35 years at the intersection of innovation, technology, and
market research, during which time Ray has held director level positions with
Vision Critical, Virtual Surveys, The Research Business, Millward Brown,
Sandpiper and IntelliQuest.

Ray sees his mission as “Have fun, help people, pursue knowledge, and try to make some money along the way”

Additional Information

Get the latest MRS news

Our newsletters cover the latest MRS events, policy updates and research news.