In uncertain times, predictions tend to be wrong, the antidote is Scenario Thinking


Scenario Thinking takes the complexities of the future and strips them down to the core issues that map out possible futures. These possible futures are the scenarios; mutually exclusive stories that describe what might happen next. Scenarios allow an uncertain future to be envisioned and planned for.

Scenario Thinking is an alternative to, and a complement for, predictions. There is never a shortage of people making predictions, but what we know from research conducted by people like Philip Tetlock is that most predictions are wrong, and most experts are as likely to be accurate as a chimpanzee with a dart. The aim of scenario thinking is to ensure that you are never wrong, as opposed to focusing on trying to be absolutely right.

Learning Outcomes

  • Understand the role of scenarios in planning for uncertain futures
  • Identify the steps you need to take to create a useful set of scenarios
  • Analyse the role of insights creating and applying Scenario Thinking
  • Evaluate the benefits accruing from Scenario Thinking

Who Will Benefit?

Those involved in making or supporting strategic decisions. Decision makers from brand managers through to CFOs and CEOs will profit from being able to use Scenario Planning more effectively. Researchers and insight consultants inputting to strategic decisions will benefit from a better understanding of their role in the Scenario Planning process.

"The speaker was engaging, the examples helpful and the process easy to understand."

Krisztian Komandi - Spotless Interactive,July 2023

"Informative and useful."

Alex Finkel - Nexus, July 2023

"A valuable introduction to Scenario Thinking, backed by useful frameworks."

Julia P. - Finger on the Pulse Research Ltd. September 2022

"A useful antidote to narrow, inward-looking, short-term thinking."

Jon Griffiths - News UK, May 2022

"Great intro to scenario planning and the role of research in it."

Alexa Arrowsmith - Monkey See, May 2022

Additional Information

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