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International Journal of Market Research

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BPC/MRS enquiry into election: Ipsos MORI response and perspective [Download PDF]
Roger Mortimore, Paul Baines, Robert Worcester and Mark Gill
This Forum article considers the unsatisfactory results of pre-election opinion polling in the 2015 British general election and the BPC/MRS enquiry report into polling by Sturgis et al., providing a response from Ipsos MORI and associated researchers at King’s College London and Cranfield Universities. Whilst Sturgis et al. (2016) consider how to perfect opinion poll forecasting, why the 2015 prediction was inaccurate when the same methodology returned satisfactory results in 2005 and 2010 at Ipsos MORI is considered here instead. We agree with Sturgis et al. that the inaccurate results were not due to late swing or the ‘shy Tory’ problem and with Taylor (2016) that the underlying problem is a response rate bias. However, Sturgis et al. critique pollsters in their report for systematically under-representing Conservative voters but the Ipsos MORI final poll had too many Conservatives, too many Labour voters and not enough non-voters. The Sturgis et al. conclusion is convincing that the politically disengaged were under-represented due to quotas and weighting mechanisms designed to correct for response bias. Nevertheless, for Ipsos MORI, this explanation does not account for why the polling methodology was inaccurate in 2015 when it had performed accurately in 2005 and 2010. For Ipsos MORI, a more likely explanation is that Labour voters in 2015 became more prone to exaggerate their voting likelihood. We offer various postulations on why this might have been so, concluding that to account for the inaccuracy requires a two-fold response, to improve: (i) sample representativeness and (ii) the projection of voting behaviour from the data. Unfortunately, the BPC/MRS report offers no blueprint for how to solve the problem of sampling the politically disengaged. Whilst Ipsos MORI have redesigned their quotas to take account of education levels, to represent those better with no formal educational qualifications and reduce overrepresentation of graduates, polling in the referendum on EU membership suggests that the problem of drawing a representative sample has been solved but difficulties in how best to allow for turnout persist.
[Digital First] Published 3 February 2017

Book Review: Decoding the irrational consumer, by Darren Bridger; The intuitive customer, by Colin Shaw & Ryan Hamilton [Download PDF]
Justin Gutmann Vol. 59 No. 1, 2017 pp. 139–142
This book review looks at 'Decoding the irrational consumer: how to commission, run and generate insights from neuromarketing data', by Darren Bridger and 'The intuitive customer: 7 imperatives for moving your customer experience to the next level, by Colin Shaw & Ryan Hamilton'. Bridger's work is a well written and thorough guide in three parts: Theoretical Insights; The New Research Tools; and Putting it all Together. His discussion of rational behaviour is particularly sound and the chapters in Part 2 are substantial. It will appeal to practitioners in marketing, both experienced and inexperienced. Shaw and Hamilton's work has a chatty and idiomatic style and focuses on behavioural economics. The organisation of the work into seven imperatives is interesting and entertaining. The books may not appeal to purists but are recommended to practitioners and market researchers.
Published 26 January 2017

Forum: Gaming for respondents: a test of the impact of gamification on completion rates [Download PDF]
Susanna Warnock and J. Sumner Gantz Vol. 59 No. 1, 2017 pp. 117–138
This paper examines the challenge for marketing research companies in overcoming consumers’ reluctance to participate in surveys in order to provide decision makers with quality data. On the one hand, clients are increasingly demanding more data; these clients are interested in employing and refining many of the trends in business analytics – Big Data, data-driven customer relationship management, more sophisticated customer segmentation or simply monitoring customer satisfaction. In order to do this, the clients are demanding more data, more often. On the other hand, marketing research companies are finding it increasingly difficult to get respondents to participate in quantitative studies. The cost of reaching respondents, getting them to begin a survey and, more importantly, complete the survey with thoughtful and honest answers, is decreasing the profit margin for many marketing research companies. How can marketing research companies deal with this difficult dilemma?
Published 26 January 2017

How political candidates’ use of Facebook relates to the election outcomes [Download PDF]
Hsin-Chen Lin Vol. 59 No. 1, 2017 pp. 77–96
This paper examines the relationship between political candidates’ use of Facebook and their election outcomes (vote share and election success). The use of social media in political marketing campaigns has grown dramatically over the past few years. It is also expected to become even more critical to future political campaigns, as it creates two-way communication and engagement that stimulates and fosters candidates’ relationships with their supporters. Online Facebook data were acquired for all 84 candidates running in a municipal election in Taiwan. Results suggest that a candidate’s Facebook presence, the type of account they use, the authentication of the account, and the number of online fans they have are related to their election outcomes.
Published 26 January 2017

Consumer co-creation: an opportunity to humanise the new product development process [Download PDF]
Deborah Lynn Roberts and William Darler Vol. 59 No. 1, 2017 pp. 13–33
Based on findings from four in-depth case studies within global brand manufacturers in the fast moving consumer goods (fmcg) industry, this paper develops a framework for understanding the organisational processes that support consumer co-creation within new product development (NPD). A new perspective, that of co-creation, in which consumers are 'active' participants in the design and development of new products, is challenging the traditional model of NPD. Co-creation provides an opportunity for market researchers to develop a people-centric approach to research, thereby humanising the NPD process. Key to co-creation practices are: a culture supporting innovation and co-creation; a strategy for consumer selection; a focus on qualitative research methods; and training in business creativity and relationship-building skills.
Published 26 January 2017

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MRS News

MRS launches industry diversity questionnaire 

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MRS Main Board Election 2017

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Paragon, a Unilever initiated partnership, and GRBN join forces

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The IJMR is published for MRS by Warc, the global provider of ideas and evidence for marketing people.